What does the new president of South Korea mean for Japan?

On March 9, 2022, South Korean voters elected Eun Sook-eol – a former prosecutor who became a politician from the main opposition People’s Power Party (PPP). As their next president. Eun lost by less than 1 percent (48.6% to 47.8%) of the popular Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-mung in the popular vote. The margin was the closest in the history of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and was dubbed as. Unexpected selection Both candidates’ denial ratings matched their popularity. Eun will replace current President Moon Jae-in on May 10, 2022.

Who is Eun?

Yoon earned his reputation by investigating the corruption of former Conservative President Park Geun-hye, which eventually led to his death. Impeachment and imprisonment. Yoon’s prominence earned him the position of prosecutor general under the Moon administration, but he soon fell within the ruling Democratic Party for targeting Moon’s inner circle workers. Because of his actions, Eun quickly emerged as a candidate for the Conservative PPP against the ruling party in the presidential election. Although its Controversial comment– such as the commitment to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family – it was the UN’s unwavering adherence to the principles that ultimately promoted him to the presidency.

South Korea’s foreign policy perspective under the UN

United States Eun has promised to build closer ties with Washington – Seoul’s only deal ally – in the face of a challenging environment in East Asia. Eun called for deepening the bilateral alliance as the central axis of its foreign policy, and I assume that the US-ROK alliance will run more smoothly and coherently on North Korea, regional and global issues.

ChinaUS Terminal will prompt UN request for High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system Another harsh response – The timing of the initial THAAD deployment from China to the Korean Peninsula is similar to 2016. Where relations with the US-ROK alliance will be strengthened Potential THAAD expansionDiplomatic and economic relations with China will take another major blow.

Japan Eun will try to develop relations with Japan, which is there Significant deterioration Under President Moon. Eun Moon has criticized diplomacy as pro-Beijing and pro-Pyongyang, stressing the need to strengthen the US-ROK alliance – in order to complete the non-existent US-ROK-Japan tripartite, including continuing reconciliation with Japan. On the same line, Eun promised to start again Shuttle diplomacy, An exercise closed since 2011 with Tokyo to improve bilateral relations. The approach called on both leaders to visit each other for regular dialogue.

North Korea Eun repeatedly attacked Moon’s methods (citing Kim Jong-un’s missile launch and provocative flow of weapons tests), which called for a partial lifting of sanctions for North Korea to resume dialogue. Eun proposed conditional economic aid on Pyongyang’s progress toward nuclear disarmament and stressed the need to launch one. Advance strike At an upcoming threat event. Therefore, I think that even if only to a certain extent, the UN’s tough stance on Pyongyang will lead to escalation of the dispute between the two Koreas.

Immediate assessment

Yun closely aligns with China’s growing commitment to the region and with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s views on North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. Thus, despite the differences, Seoul and Tokyo can still cooperate in the following areas: maritime security, intelligence-sharing (General security of military information contracts), And cyber-defense.

Nonetheless, with both countries repeatedly urging each other to take appropriate steps to address the issue of women in conflict, wartime labor issues and regional disputes, I find it difficult to be optimistic about the outlook for bilateral relations, at least in the near term. More importantly, Japanese policymakers are still skeptical and maintain that all issues have been resolved. 1965 Generalization Agreement. Nonetheless, Eun said he would not use the historic tensions with Japan for domestic political gain and would try to resolve the integrated lines of economic and security issues in a comprehensive way.

What’s more, by inviting Eun to participate, Kishida can certainly show her commitment and support for bilateral relations. Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, A US-led regional forum that includes Australia, India and Japan. In conclusion, I think Kishida will not change policy before Election of House of Councilors In July. Any hasty decision by Kishida and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could potentially have a negative impact and could lose a majority in the national food upper house.

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