How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect Africa?

The first and most devastating effect has been on African students studying in Ukraine, who have been forced to flee the city for safety from the war. More than 20% of Ukraine’s foreign students come from Africa, mostly from Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria.

Russian invaders are indiscriminately shelling cities and killing civilians; Sadly there have been some casualties from this blitzkrieg to African students. Others have been unable to fly safely due to the closure of Ukrainian airspace, and more than a million refugees have already been forced to find overland routes. In the panic to find a way to safety, the racial harassment and discrimination they faced made their removal extremely unpleasant.

The second immediate effect will be on trade with Russia and Ukraine and on food security in Africa. Trade in energy and agricultural products with Russia will be blocked due to strict economic sanctions against Russian businesses and banks. Russia has previously sold about 4 4 billion worth of wheat to the African grain market. Countries that have historically traded with Russia for serial products, such as Egypt and Tunisia, need to look elsewhere for supplies. Due to the ongoing war, the outlook for Ukrainian exports also looks uncertain, and potential disruptions to production; Ukraine previously exported about বিল 3 billion worth of agricultural products to Africa.

But there are winners and losers in trade from the effects of the Russian war. Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, all oil-rich energy producers, would benefit from Russia’s exclusion from the world market. Ethiopia could potentially meet some of the demand for wheat in different situations, but unfortunately, their agricultural production is being hampered by the civil war.

The third effect is in terms of security and defense. Russia has cherry-picking states in Africa that are controlled by dictators, based on their mineral resources and military interests. Russia has formed military alliances with Libya, Mali, Sudan, the Central African Republic and Mozambique.

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine could curb its ambition to expand further into Africa. The Russian military is losing an estimated 1,000 troops a day in Ukraine and has already called on conservatives in Russia to close the gap in their ongoing offensive. But because of sanctions against Russia over high-tech imports, Russia will likely seek to strengthen and forge existing ties with countries such as Mali and the Central African Republic (the world leader in cobalt production). New relations with other mineral rich countries in Africa. A bilateral summit between Russia and the African Union is scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa in October this year.

In terms of international diplomacy and foreign policy, Africa has a very important voice, with about 25% of the seats in the UN General Assembly. The United Nations has adopted a resolution calling on Russia to immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all its military forces from Ukrainian territory within its internationally recognized borders.

Eritrea is the only African country to vote against the resolution, which was adopted unanimously, with 141 countries voting in favor; A minority of 15 African countries (including military ties with Russia) abstained. But most African leaders have condemned Russia’s aggression.

The African Union issued a statement calling on Russia to respect international law, territorial integrity and Ukraine’s national sovereignty. Ghana and Nigeria have condemned Russia’s aggression without provocation. South Africa has called for peace and dialogue and called on the United Nations to do more to mediate.

In a strong and eloquent statement to the Security Council, Kenyan Ambassador Kimani reprimanded Russia, saying “Kenya and almost every African country was born with the end of the empire. Our borders were not drawn on our own. They were drawn to the remote colonial cities of London, Paris and Lisbon, and separated without regard to the ancient lands. “

He said that African countries have chosen to look ahead instead of forming a nation that has looked back in history with a dangerous nostalgia. African countries follow the rules of the African Union and the United Nations, because they are not satisfied with the stability of the existing borders, but they want something bigger to be forged in peace.

This knowledge of Kenya is best for Africa to analyze the potentially most damaging effects of the Russian war in Ukraine. If Russia’s naked aggression is seen to succeed in Ukraine, then democracy, freedom and freedom of thought are at risk from the greedy actions of dictators to feed their greedy ambitions.

As the war in Ukraine continues, and the number of human suffering is becoming clearer, the eyes of all African leaders will be on the conflict, as they will try to stop this war through international mediation, and prevent such a war from ever again. Spreading in Africa.

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