Running through all 40 runners in the world’s most famous race – the Entree’s Grand National – can be a touching task – but there are a number of strict and fast rules that can help you get on the field to create a manageable shortlist.
To do this, we’ve crunched data from the last 15 Grand Nationals to help identify some of the key trends shared by most past winners so that they can be applied to this year’s case.
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Color
Okay, a bit fun to get started and one for those who want to choose based on the colorful silk.
Owner JP McManus won the race with last year Minela Times And his familiar green and gold colors will carry many more runners, including the return champion.
For any fan of minions out there, look no further than Colin Tizard Engaged in translationA minion mega fan who wears yellow and blue in honor of co-owner Paul Taylor’s late son Charlie.
Fans of West Ham, Aston Villa or Burnley may be keen to cheer for Claret and Blue. Escaria Ten Or Discorama.
For horse coloring, Charlie Longsdon’s popular horse Snow leopard Will bid to become only the fifth gray horse to win the race in its 183-year history.
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Name
Let’s face it, we all know someone who has chosen the winner purely because they liked the name!
During the last 15 renewals, One for Arthur is the only winner with a common forename, with this year’s options: Run Wild Fred, Good boy Bobby, Top Ville Ben And Freehill Dylan.
Five of the last 15 winners are European phrases (Minella Times, Pineau De Re, Aurora Encore, Mon Mome and Ballabriggs – Balla is Italian for dance!) ).
Money with this year’s field through a strong theme Two for gold, Dingo dollars And Poker party Everyone has entered.
Poker Party and Rachel Blackmore after the Kerry National win
Jockey and trainer
Those who have famously partnered with the winner since 2006 still hold a jockey license, Derek Fox (won in 2017), Ryan Mania (2013), Daryl Jacob (2012), Robbie Power (2007) and of course the first person to play the Tiger role. Twice came home, Davy Russell.
Meanwhile, Rachel Blackmore has returned to tip-top form from Cheltenham and would like to emulate Russell with a back-to-back victory after his heroic victory at the Minela Times 12 months ago.
Blackmore after winning the Grand National at the Minela Times
For coaches, there are many who have achieved once and still have a training license, including the female trio Lucinda Russell (she won in 2017), Sue Smith (2013) and Venetia Williams (2009).
Scotland-based Russell is representing this year Mighty ThunderPolly Gundry is taking care of former Nicky Henderson Tecker Peace And Emma Lovell train D Rasha’s counter.
Nigel Twiston-Davis (1998 and 2002) and Gordon Elliott (2007, 2018 and 2019) are multiple winners of the national team.
Coach Lucinda Russell with Grand National optimist Mighty Thunder
Disagreement
Grand National has long been seen as something like a lottery but recent market history shows that the task is not impossible.
In fact, 15 of the last 24 winners have emerged from the top eight in betting, which is a fair bias considering 38-40 runners per year. Ten of those winners were 11/1 or younger.
Winner of the Cheltenham Festival Delta work (Gordon Elliott) Stable Tiger Roll in Cross Country Chase has been well supported after denying the fairy tale farewell.
Enjoy D’AllenAnother strong fancy for last year’s Irish Grand National third, coach Ciaran Murphy.
Delta Work defeats Dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll at Cheltenham Festival last month
Form
On the form front, it’s best to check the form-figure of a runner on the racecard, as 13 of the last 15 national winners finished in the top two during their last three outings – the same number that made the top six in their last outings.
Match practice also proved important that season, with 14 of the last 15 winners having three to seven runs before the campaign.
Ted Walsh Any second nowThe third-place finisher, who finished third at the Grand National last year, has had three outings this season, the last time he defeated Escaria Ten in a hot-looking Bobbizo Chase at Fairyhouse.
Six of the last 15 winners from 2006 have come to Entre through Cheltenham, and this year they have chosen the path of their choice. Easyland, Brahma bull, Mount Ida And Nobel Yates.
Annie Second Now has been well-received for this year’s entry showpiece
Age and weight
When it comes to choosing the right horse with age to win this stamina-sapping event, history tells us that the combination of youth and experience is the best.
For each national winner since 2005, eight-year-old and 11-year-old horses have been selected in the bracket account, leaving 36 of the six- and seven-year-olds unsuccessful in the effort.
Elliott is seven years old Coco Beach12 years old Anibale fly (Tony Martin) and 13-year veteran Blacklion (Dan Skeleton) will try to support that trend.
With four and a half miles to run a marathon, it’s easy to understand why every pound of saddle is important.
That said, since 1997, 69 runners had a record of dropping the 11th 7lb or more, with only a handful of clouds succeeding in 2015 – carrying the 11st 9lb – suggesting focusing on the 11st 6lb or lighter.
This raises a tough question for 2021 champions Minella Times (11st 10lb) and Delta Work (11st 9lb).
