The Milwaukee Box defeated the Celtics on Thursday to advance to the No. 2 seed, a game No. 3 in Boston and No. 4 in Philadelphia. A potentially complex tiebreaker scenario could unfold between Celtics and Box, which we will explain in detail below.
Also, previously, the Miami Heat gained No. 1 seed by beating Boston and Philadelphia. Now, only the Bucks match Miami’s 52-win mark. With the Milwaukee-Miami season series tied 2-2 and both teams winning the division, the next tiebreaker will be the conference record, which will eventually tie. Which will take the record against Eastern Conference playoff teams, which Miami has secured.
To the west, the Nuggets won a play-off spot, locking the Timberwolves to No. 7 seed, while the Warriors had a game with the Mavericks for the remaining two games. The rest of the way we will keep a close eye on the playoff race with daily updates. Below are the things that stand out for entering the game on Friday, April 8th.
Note: Our sportsline model, created by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, replicated 10,000 times throughout the season and is constantly being updated to reflect changing circumstances to create the most unbiased and accurate estimates imaginable.
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Western Conference
1. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix ranks No. 1 overall.
- Current first round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies won the No. 2 seed.
3. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have one game left and two to play in the rate column at No. 4 Dallas. Golden State has received top-four seeds.
- Projected seeds: 3
- Current first round matchup: Nuggets
- Tiebreaker vs. Mavericks 4: Dallas won 3-1 with a head-to-head advantage
4. Dallas Mavericks
Los Columns is a game back to Dallas No. 3 Golden State where two must play and Dallas has a tiebreaker. Mavericks won the top-four seed.
- Projected seeds: 4
- Current first round matchup: Jazz
- Tiebreaker vs. Warriors 3: Dallas won 3-1 with a head-to-head advantage
5. Utah Jazz
The Jazz picked up the top-six with a win against Memphis on Tuesday. At No. 6 Denver they will play one game up and two.
- Projected seeds: 6
- Current first round matchup: Mavericks
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: The Jazz won 4-0 with a head-to-head advantage
6. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets made the top-six pick with their win against the Grizzlies on Thursday. Nuggets is a game back of No. 5 jazz where two must play, but the jazz has a tiebreaker.
- Projected seeds: 5
- Current play-in matchup: Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. Jazz 5: Utah won 4-0 with a head-to-head advantage
Play team
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves No. 7 are locked in the seed.
- Play-in matchup: Clipper
8. Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers are stuck in seed no
- Play-in matchup: Wooden wolf
9. New Orleans Pelican
The Pelicans have led the No. 10 Spurs in two games and will have to play two (the Spurs have a tiebreaker). New Orleans can finish no more than No. 9 seed.
- Projected seeds: 9
- Current play-in matchup: Spurs
- Tiebreaker vs. Spurs No. 10: San Antonio won 3-1 through a head-to-head advantage
10. San Antonio Spurs
Spurs have achieved play-in berths. The Spurs could mathematically catch the No. 9 Pelicans, whom they beat in two games, with two remaining and a tiebreaker in hand. Spurs can’t finish more than seed number 9.
- Projected seeds: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Pelican
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelican: San Antonio won 3-1 through a head-to-head advantage
USATSI
Eastern Conference
1. Miami hits
Miami got the No. 1 seed.
- Current first round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
2. Milwaukee box
Milwaukee beat Boston on Thursday to move to the No. 2 seed, a game in the No. 3 Celtics in the Los Columns and a full game in the No. 4 Sixes. There are two games left in the box.
If there is a tie between Box and the Celtics, the Celtics – assuming they are ahead of Philadelphia for the Atlantic Division crown – will end up in the fifth tiebreaker.
It’s a little complicated, so pay attention.
It goes like this: Head to Head is the first tiebreaker, and the Boston-Milwaukee season series is 2-2. The next tiebreaker goes to a division winner, but for now, both Boston and Milwaukee will be division winners. So it goes to the conference record. Boston will finish 33-19 against the East, while the Boxes are currently 32-18 with two previous Conference opponents left on their schedule (Detroit and Cleveland). If Milwaukee can win both games, it won’t be a tiebreaker because their record will be better than Boston’s. If Milwaukee splits these two games and defeats Boston Memphis, both Box and Celtic will end up with a 33-19 record against the former.
Eventually, it will come down to their record against Eastern Conference playoff teams, and it is here that Boston has already won 20-13 over Milwaukee’s 17-15 record, pending its final game against Cleveland.
If it ends a three-way tie between the Bucks, Celtics and Sixers, it is determined by the percentage of round-robin wins. Milwaukee will take the No. 2 seed with a combined record of 4-3 against the Celtics and Sixers; Boston will land at No. 3 with a 4-4 record against the Boxes and Sixers; No. 4 will finish with a 3-4 record against the Philly Box and the Celtics.
- Projected seeds: 2
- Current first round matchup: Cavaliers vs. Net Play-in winners
- Tiebreaker vs. Boston No. 3: The Celtics currently own through the conference winning percentage (See above for developing situations)
- Tiebreaker v 4 Philadelphia: Box 2-1 has clinched through the head-to-head facility
3. Boston Celtics
The Celtics lost to Milwaukee on Thursday and are now back in one of the box games in the loss column with one game left. If Box and Celtics become a two-way tie, please scroll to the Milwaukee section, where the complex tiebreaker situation is detailed.
The Celtics have a tie in the rate column with the No. 6 sixes but have won the tiebreaker with a better record in the Atlantic division (season series has been tied 2-2).
If it ends a three-way tie between the Bucks, Celtics and Sixers, it is determined by the percentage of round-robin wins. Milwaukee will take the No. 2 seed with a combined record of 4-3 against the Celtics and Sixers; Boston will land at No. 3 with a 4-4 record against the Boxes and Sixers; No. 4 will finish with a 3-4 record against the Philly Box and the Celtics.
- Projected seeds: 3
- Current first round matchup: Bull
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: The Celtics won by 2-0 head-to-head with one match remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: With one match left, Celtics are 2-1 up in the season series
- Tiebreaker v 4 Philadelphia: The Celtics currently hold even better Atlantic Division records (head to head tie 2-2).
- Tiebreaker vs. Toronto No. 5: Boston currently owns as the leader of the Atlantic Division
4. Philadelphia 76ers
The sixes are tied to the back of the Celtic No. 3 and No. 2 boxes in the loss column. The Sixers must finish 2-0 and the Box must finish 0-2 to pass Philly to Milwaukee (the box’s own tiebreaker).
If Philly ends the tie with Boston, the Celtics have won the tiebreaker with a better Atlantic division record (the season series has been tied 2-2).
If there is a three-way tie between the Celtics, the Boxes and the Sixers, the Sixers will end up as the No. 4 seed no matter which game they win between Milwaukee and Boston on Thursday as they are only 3-4 against. These two teams, and the three teams involved in Boston and Milwaukee, can’t get below the winning percentage.
- Projected seeds: 4
- Current first round matchup: Raptors
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami is currently owned by Conference Records (season series 2-2 tie, with both teams leading the division).
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Boston: Boston has won through the Atlantic Division record
- Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee 3: Box 2-1 has clinched through the head-to-head facility
- Tiebreaker vs. Toronto No. 5: The Raptors are 2-1 up in the season series with one head-to-head left.
5. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won a play-off spot. The Toronto No. 6 Bulls have two games left (owner of the Chicago tiebreaker).
- Projected seeds: 5
- Current play-in matchup: 76ers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Boston: The Celtics currently own as the leader of the Atlantic division
- Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee 3: Raptors have been clinched through 3-0 head-to-head facilities
- Tiebreaker v 4 Philadelphia: The Raptors are 2-1 up in the season series with one head-to-head left.
- Tiebreaker vs. 6th Chicago: Chicago won the tiebreaker 3-1 with a head-to-head advantage
6. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are behind two games in No. 5 Toronto where two must play (Chicago has won the tiebreaker so it is technically alive to pass Toronto). The Bulls have won a play-off spot and cannot rise above seed number 5.
- Projected seeds: 6
- Current first round Matchup: Box
- Tiebreaker vs. Toronto No. 5: Chicago won the tiebreaker 3-1 with a head-to-head advantage
Current play-in team
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have only one game and two games to play at No. 8 Brooklyn and No. 9 Atlanta. One of those games is against the Nets on Friday, who will pass Cleveland with a head-to-head win that will also seal the tiebreaker for Brooklyn. Atlanta also owns the tiebreaker against Cleveland. Cavra cannot rise to the top six.
- Projected seeds: 8
- Current first round matchup: Fake
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: With one match left, the net season series is 2-1 ahead
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Atlanta: The Hawks clinched through a 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Cleveland is currently owned by Conference Records (season series 2-2 tie).
8. Brooklyn Net
Brooklyn Hall No. 7 is a Cleveland back, which will be played on Friday, if the Nets win that game, they will also seal the tiebreaker on Cleveland, meaning the Nets control their own fate for the No. 7 seed. Hawk No. 9 has a net tie and has won that tiebreaker as well. Brooklyn and Atlanta each have two matches left.
- Projected seeds: 7
- Current play-in matchup: Hornets
- Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland No. 6: With one match left, the net season series is 2-1 ahead
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Atlanta: The net has clinched through a 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Hornet clinched through the 2-1 head-to-head advantage
9. Atlanta Hawks
Hawks tied to No. 8 net (owner of Brooklyn tiebreaker). Each team has two matches left. The Hawks put Hornet No. 10 ahead in one game and currently own the tiebreaker with a percentage of conference wins.
- Projected seeds: 9
- Current play-in matchup: Cavs
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: The net has clinched through a 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Atlanta currently owns through the conference win percentage
10. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornet is a back of the No. 9 Hawk and No. 8 mesh. Charlotte won the tiebreaker over Brooklyn and can still win the tiebreaker over Atlanta through the conference record (each team has lost 25 conferences at the moment; Charlotte has two Eastern Conference games left and the Hawks have one).
- Projected seeds: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Fake
- Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland No. 6: The Cavs currently own the Conference Record (Season Series 2-2 tie)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Hornet clinched through the 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta 9: Hornet is currently owned by Conference Records (Season Series tied 2-2)
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